Another Dry Day With Some Sunshine on This Sunday...But Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms Look To Break The Streak Monday and Tuesday...
Good Sunday to you! I hope you were able to spend some time outside on this 2nd day of August...because we saw another dry day with a good amount of sunshine! While it was toasty in the mid to upper 80s for most communities...the humidity wasn't that bad at all. In fact...the dewpoints, which tell us how 'humid' the air is, were only in the mid to upper 50s; that's an absolute bargain for early August...and something like you'd see in the early fall instead! Will this comfortable air last into the work-week, though? Scattered severe storms possible at times throughout the work-week? Nice weather just in time for next weekend? Here is your complete and detailed, seven-day forecast...
EVENING: Mostly clear and dry with comfortable humidity. Temperatures warm early on in the low to mid 80s, but falling into the upper 60s for most towards Midnight.
**Another nice-looking evening! With a high-pressure firmly planted nearby...dry sinking air will be the rule, so quiet conditions will prevail. Like yesterday evening...any leftover cumulus clouds, which use the heating of the day to keep themselves 'inflated', should gradually decrease towards sunset. A weakening upper-level disturbance back towards Cincinnati, which is having no luck of producing any rainfall given the dry column of air in place, will push a few, high, wispy, cirrus clouds this way...but that's it. Perhaps just enough cirrus for another nice sunset, so keep an eye out to the western sky! While it will remain toasty in direct sunlight early on...comfortable humidity levels will allow the air to cool rather quickly towards and after sundown, so pleasant for early-August! With mostly clear skies, little, if any, wind and modest dewpoint temperatures...most places will fall into the upper 60s by Midnight, so a good night to be on the porch perhaps! Outlying valleys and hollows will fall into the low to mid 60s by then. Again...more like early-October as opposed to early-August!
TONIGHT: Mostly clear and comfortable with patchy fog along river valleys late. A spotty shower and/or thunderstorm across far western counties by dawn Monday. Low: 61.
**Looks like another quiet night! With the high-pressure slowly moving off towards our south and east into Virginia and North Carolina...it will still be close enough by to promote a dry and stable atmosphere through dawn tomorrow, at least from the Ohio River and east. With mostly clear skies tonight...save for a few, wispy, cirrus clouds, along with little, if any, wind in the lower atmosphere, temperatures will fall off pretty quickly. In fact...most locations should bottom out in the 60-62 degree range towards daybreak tomorrow; that's comfortable for early August! These same conditions that allow for a comfortable night can also allow for the formation of fog; however, with the ground drying out as of late, any patchy fog should be confined to near river valleys and pretty brief between 5 and 830 AM. While some upper-air disturbances will be dropping down in the westerly flow aloft...there simply won't be enough moisture and/or instability for this lift to be consequential, so a dry night for the majority of the region. I say the majority because far western counties, such as Scioto County, OH, Lewis County, KY and perhaps Greenup County, will be close to a warm-front by 6-8 AM tomorrow morning. That feature may have enough moisture and elevated instability to work with for a scattered shower and/or thunderstorm there. Again, though, this will not impact Huntington, Teays Valley, Charleston, or the majority of West Virginia for the morning rush. Models also show an 'upslope' type flow for the southern mountains of West Virginia; while not likely...this scenario can sometimes allow for some low clouds and/or a sprinkle to occur for places like Beckley and other locations in southern West Virginia.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy, hot and turning more humid in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, especially late in the day/evening. One or two storms may turn strong to severe, especially closer to the Ohio River. High: 91.
**Save for the warm-front across south-central Ohio and northeastern Kentucky, which may allow for a scattered shower and/or thunderstorm there, the rest of the area will start dry and fairly comfortable in the lower 60s! No problems if you're heading out the door early, which always helps on a Monday! However, as a low-pressure continues to track over southeastern Canada...a surge of warm, moist air behind the warm-front will draw closer between 11 AM and 1 PM. While this feature won't have much upper-level energy/support to work it (models don't show any rainfall with this)...warm-fronts are notorious at overachieving; due to this surge of warm, moist air...can't entirely rule out a very isolated shower and/or thunderstorm around the lunch-hour, as better moisture and instability arrives from the west. Otherwise...only expecting a few low to mid-clouds to briefly increase in this time-frame, filtering the sun out a bit. Behind this warm-front...a slight, southwesterly breeze, along with a good amount of sunshine, will push temperatures towards 90 degrees by the late-afternoon and evening. Dewpoints, or the amount of humidity, will also rise, too...generally reaching the mid to upper 60s. The combination of heat and added humidity will allow the atmosphere to turn strongly unstable...meaning the air will be willing to rise on it's own, which is key for shower and thunderstorm development. However, upper-air disturbances, or other 'triggers', will be lacking. This means that much of the mid to late-afternoon should remain dry...before a front nears the Ohio River in the 6-10 PM time-frame. Forcing along this feature should initiate some scattered showers and thunderstorms...first closer to the Ohio River, before dropping towards the southeast thereafter. Again...the overall lift looks disjointed and weak, so not expecting widespread activity, but enough for some showers and thunderstorms. Any storm that does form will have a chance to turn strong to severe...as there will be modest, yet sufficient, wind-shear and a strongly unstable atmosphere to tap into. In fact... with the winds shifting a little bit with increasing altitude, wouldn't be entirely surprised if a cell or two aquires some broad rotation. However, that would depend on whether this activity is 'discrete' or isolated enough. With the way it looks now, expecting broken lines and an discrete storm or two...as the mid-level flow will be blowing slightly perpendicular to the frontal zone. What also may help these thunderstorms, and their accompany updrafts, would be a lack of deep moisture in the atmosphere; the moisture depth will be sufficient for storms to fire, but the atmosphere won't be loaded with water...so that means the rising air feeding these storms may rise a little quicker. Ultimately, this means that some storms will be capable of producing large hail, strong, gusty winds, lightning and brief downpours. A brief and weak tornado, in theory, could be possible...but that doesn't look to be a huge concern at this point, especially given that this activity should remain rather scattered. Some weak 'ripples' of energy aloft may keep the strongest rising air north of I-64...so northern counties may have the best chance of seeing a strong or severe storm Monday evening. Whatever comes of this activity should congeal into a cluster of showers and storms and drop towards I-64 thereafter. Despite nocturnal cooling...good forcing along the front, increasing flow in the lower atmosphere and better wind-shear, may keep an isolated severe threat going 2-3 hours after sundown before slowly waning.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe early on. Areas of low clouds and fog developing late. Low: 67.
**With the low-pressure moving further into Canada...the front associated with it should slowly move through our region. With the air still a bit unstable and plenty humid...scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist early on along this front. While a strong or severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out early...much of this activity should be in the form of brief downpours and some lightning. Otherwise...expecting the front to become less active as the night goes on, especially in the absence of upper-air disturbances and/or stronger sources of lift. This front should push just south of the region by dawn Tuesday...leaving behind some low clouds and fog in it's wake.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy, warm and muggy with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening, especially from I-64 and south into the coalfields. High: 87.
**This day looks to start with some low clouds and fog, as there will be plenty of moisture pooling along the front...which should be just to the south of I-64. A light shower and/or sprinkle can't be ruled out given the abundant low-level moisture...but for the most part, many locations will start dry. Otherwise...these low-clouds will break in the mid to late-morning, allowing for some hazy sunshine. This sunshine, along with dewpoints in the mid 60s near the front, will allow the atmosphere to turn rather unstable in the afternoon...especially near I-64 and south. This will cause isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop, generally after 2 PM. However, without any strong disturbances and/or upper-level support near this front...thunderstorm activity should remain rather sparse and mostly from I-64 and south. Not a guarantee that you will see a storm in this community due to this. If you do see one, it should be pretty brief, though, as the mid-level winds will be stronger; this stronger shear, however, may allow for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm, so we'll watch that. Places north of Charleston and Huntington should stay dry altogether...as less humidity and a more stable airmass should exist for places like Ripley, Spencer, Jackson, OH and north for example. This front won't move far by evening, however...as the mid to upper-level winds over our region will be blowing mostly parallel to it.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, warm and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day. High: 86.
**In response to some upper-level disturbances coming up from the lower Ohio Valley...it looks like the front will start to inch back towards the north on this day. While the front alone...especially when juxtaposed with a warm, humid and unstable airmass, may allow for an isolated shower and/or thunderstorm during the day, the core of this activity should hold off until late-afternoon and evening. That's when the best forcing and upper-level support for widespread rising air motions will nose in from the southwest. By then...there will be plenty of moisture, unstable air, lift and even some wind-shear for increasing showers and thunderstorms. Given the stronger flow aloft, along with the better physical lift, some storms may turn strong to severe. Up until the evening, however, it should be mostly dry, warm and muggy.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, warm and muggy with showers and thunderstorms at times. Some storms may turn strong to severe. High: 85.
**Mid-range models both show the front nearby on this day, along with 'pieces' of energy in the mid to upper-atmosphere...but they disagree with the exact timing of a stronger impulse/low-pressure. Earlier models had a HUGE timing difference with this; one was showing an area of low-pressure near New York City, while the other was over Chicago! Hard to feel confident when those are your solutions. However, the recent runs are starting to show more of a 'down the middle' approach to this...which is more reasonable. As of now...it looks like a stronger wave of low-pressure/upper-air disturbance will track along this front and towards our region in the afternoon and evening. With a very moist and unstable airmass to tap into, expecting widespread showers and thunderstorm to develop, especially in the afternoon and evening. In fact...with the stronger wind-shear above, along with a surface low which could 'back' the low-level winds out of the south or south-southeast, a Severe Weather episode can't be discounted. Heavy rainfall could also be a concern...as the moisture depth looks deep and the forcing for ascent strong. The showers and storms should last into the evening and possibly into the overnight, too, as the low-pressure nearly moves overhead...rather unusual for August.
FRIDAY: After scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm early in the day, especially across southern counties, partly cloudy with falling humidity late. High: 84.
**While Thursday doesn't look nice at this time...the active weather from that day may actually help us on this day. The morning looks to start with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across southern counties, as the wave of low-pressure tracks along the front. Heavy rainfall could be a concern early in the day across the southern counties especially. Behind the low-pressure...the low-level winds will shift out of the northwest, which will push a drier and more stable airmass into the region. This air, which won't be prone to rise on it's own, will greatly reduce the odds of rain and storms by the afternoon. Sinking air in the wake of this low-pressure will especially lessen the risk of rainfall. This means the 2nd half of the day/evening looks great! As of now...Live on the Levee looks dry with clearing skies, falling humidity and a slight breeze. Fingers crossed this holds true!
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy with comfortable humidity. High: 83.
**With the low-pressure off the East Coast...a north-northwesterly wind in it's wake will keep the air cooler and more stable! This means thunderstorm chances are essentially nil. And with a high-pressure over the Great Lakes...little, if any, rising air motions will keep most of us dry. The only small exception would possibly be across the eastern, mountain counties...that's where enough low-level moisture, along with an 'upslope' wind, may allow for a spotty shower and/or sprinkle. Otherwise...expecting partly sunny skies, as a good amount of cumulus clouds should develop in the afternoon. It will look and feel more like late-September or early-October...not bad for early August!
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and warmer, but not too humid. High: 86.
**With a high-pressure still nearby on this day...not much to talk about! Dry sinking air associated with this feature will keep things quiet. If anything...this high-pressure looks to move into the Northeastern United States, which would allow our temperatures to warm up a bit via a southeasterly, downsloping flow. Without a deep southwesterly flow, though, the humidity will remain pretty low...so not oppressive outside. Kind of a 'dry' heat in the direct sunlight. Otherwise...some cottonball, cumulus clouds and dry conditions!
Have a great day and take care!
WCHS Meteorologist, Brandon Stover