West Virginians can be forgiven if they’re tired of hearing the name “Joe Manchin” every 30 seconds.
Sen. Manchin, D-W.Va., is a centrist who, over the past two years in an evenly divided Senate, has attained an outsized influence over his party’s agenda that defies comparison. His tactic of stringing along negotiations on major policy, getting Democrats to concede to everything he wants and then pulling his support anyway befuddles and angers his colleagues and many of his constituents but endears him to right-wing news media, the fossil fuel industry and the ultra-wealthy. That has its perks.
Manchin’s campaign committee closed out the latest financial quarter with $9 million in cash on hand. Almost all of that — $7.8 million — has been raised during the 2021-22 campaign cycle, and Manchin’s not even on the ballot again until 2024. A sizable amount of Manchin’s donors are CEOs and fossil fuel industry lobbies.
Then there’s the cash pumped into West Virginia by dark-money political action committees for television, radio and online advertising. West Virginians are endlessly barraged with ads urging them to “tell Joe Manchin to stand against reckless spending/support lower prescription prices/stop inflation/save the planet/kill the planet/vote no/vote yes/vote maybe.”
Putting it mildly, it’s all been a bit much. Still, trying to nudge Manchin in one direction or another has become an industry unto itself.
The circumstances are strange. Manchin is only in this position because the Republican Party has almost entirely disengaged from the legislative process in the Senate. They aren’t for anything, but they’re against everything. This shouldn’t get them off the hook, but it often does. All Republicans in the Senate have to do is sit back while Democrats squabble with Manchin.
Here’s the thing: The swelling of Manchin’s campaign coffers and the recent increase in the frequency of ads have come as Congress approaches its August recess and mid-term elections loom. There are 34 seats up for election in the Senate in November. If corporate donors and right-wing dark-money groups can keep Manchin on the fence about major budget policies involving climate change and other Democrat initiatives until the election, odds increase that Republicans regain control of the upper chamber of Congress.
The question for Manchin is what happens after that. If Republicans retake the Senate, Manchin’s of little use to them. Sure, he could provide a swing vote here or there. Maybe he’d help avoid a filibuster or two. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has shown he doesn’t have Manchin’s naive restraint on such archaic rules if they’re standing in the way. How else could McConnell, when he was majority leader, get three Supreme Court justices confirmed under the previous president?
On the other hand, should the Democrats retain control and gain a slightly larger edge, the input of a senator from a small fossil-fuel state is greatly diminished, especially after that senator has been a persistent thorn in his own party’s side for nearly two years.
No one can really predict what will happen in the midterms, but nearly all outcomes point to Manchin’s window as a power broker closing. Then, the inevitable but far less noisy cycle of speculation on whether he’ll switch parties, retire, run for reelection or seek some other office like governor or, yes, even president, will begin.
West Virginians of all political affiliations will, no doubt, be thankful that the constant mention of Manchin’s name has ceased. They’ll also be left to ponder just what Manchin did for them in a time when he could have accomplished so much, but walked away more often than not.
