A frequent starting point in determining the demographics of a state or subdivision thereof is the stability or fluctuations over time in its population. A decreasing population is an indicator that there are underlying negative factors, such as loss of job opportunities or more enticing opportunities elsewhere.
Certainly, one of the most serious, if not the most serious, features of West Virginia’s and Charleston’s demographics is their declining populations over the past several years.
The state’s population decline in the decade between the 2010 and 2020 was the largest decrease, percentage wise, of any state in the nation, at 3.2%, according to the U.S. Census. This population decline caused Gov. Jim Justice to concede that, “This is a problem, a real problem. We have a lot of elderly people in West Virginia. If we don’t replace and don’t find a way to start growing, this situation will get worse.”
While Charleston remains the state’s largest city, the population dropped by 5% between 2010 and 2020, sitting two years ago at less than 50,000 residents. By comparison, Charleston’s population in 1960 was just under 86,000.
West Virginia and Vermont are the only two states in the nation whose largest cities, Charleston and Burlington, respectively, have a population of less than 50,000.
24/7 Wall Street recently noted that a long-term shrinking population can spell disaster for an economy.
How to reverse Charleston’s long-term decreasing population into a steadily increasing one poses a most intricate and difficult problem that cannot be resolved by ad hoc, extempore proposals.
Not only is Charleston’s population decreasing, but it also is likely that the share of its existing population ages 65 years or older is expanding. There is no reason to believe that the capital city is different in that regard than the state at large. The West Virginia Bureau of Business and Research predicted last October that the share of state residents ages 65 years and older will expand further, to encompass roughly one-fourth of the population.
An increase in the share of an existing population ages 65 years or older contributes to higher rates of mortality, which is another factor in causing a population decrease.
The Bureau of Business and Research states: “A population shock to encourage in-migration [is] essential to lessen the severity of natural population decline.”
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West Virginia’s labor force participation rate is the lowest of any state in the nation. The labor force participation rate is an estimate of an economy’s active workforce. Contributing factors might be drug or alcohol addictions, disabilities, public-health afflictions, lack of competency to perform the work expected of them and disinterest among our working-age population to find work. What is Charleston’s labor force participation rate, and does it mirror that of the state? This is important information to know.
In the 10th-anniversary edition of his book, “The Rise of the Creative Class,” the urbanist Richard Florida argues that “Powering the great ongoing changes of our time is the rise of human creativity [a fourth sector of an economy] as the defining feature of economic life. Creativity has come to be valued — and systems have evolved to encourage and harness it — because it is increasingly recognized as the font from which new technologies, new industries, new wealth and all other good economic things flow.”
Florida recognizes that creativity requires creative people and that where they are matters to them. An ideal sense of place, to creative people, possesses qualities that appeal to them in “thriving metro areas.”
According to Florida, “This new geography of class ... seemed to have a direct connection to a place’s economic prospects. Regions with greater concentrations of the creative class were more likely to be economic winners. Those with larger working-class concentrations were becoming economically stagnant; some were in the midst of grim downward spirals.”
While creative people may be of any age, my view is that there may be more of them percentage-wise among an educated youthful population, such as the Millennials and Gen Z.
If Charleston’s current population is approximately 45,000, is it known, or can it be known, what percentage of that number was born in the span of years from 1980 to 2002 and has a bachelor’s degree or higher?
A drive through the business section of Charleston strikingly reveals numerous commercial-building vacancies, many of which have “For Sale” or “For Lease” signs, and large tracts of vacant land resulting from demolition of existing structures. Those facts alone are ill-omened indicators of a failing economy of the state’s capital city.
This isn’t the fault of the mayor or city council.
In my view, Charleston’s challenging future economy is inextricably related to the state’s multifaceted critical concerns and pressing problems, which inhibit improving the prosperity and well-being of its citizens, businesses and professions, and are too complex and deep-seated to be resolved at the local level, or even at the state, level by off-the-cuff proposals that have been West Virginia’s inclination.
What Charleston and West Virginia need, as I have stated before, is an assembly of deep, analytical and critical thinkers to develop long-term proposals to improve the well-being of citizens, businesses and the economy.
